X3J3/96-167r1

Date:     November 12, 1996
To:       X3J3
From:     Craig T. Dedo
Subject:  Strategic Planning Assumptions for Fortran 2000

As we do strategic planning for Fortran 2000, it would be useful to take some time to consider marketing and environmental assumptions that are important to the survivability of Fortran.  Often, we have skirted such issues in our deliberations.  I believe that we need to face these issues straightforwardly.  Following is a list of major assumptions that affect the future of Fortran.  I would like X3J3 to take some time to discuss these and related assumptions of how the programming world works.

1. Time Frame.
   a. The relevant period of time for Fortran 2000 will be 2001 - 2012.
   b. Any other time period?

2. Market Presence - Ideal.  Ideally, without regard to such factors
   as political and economic constraints, what kind of market presence
   should Fortran have?
   a. Blow away all of the competition.
   b. Be second to none as the language of choice for high powered
      numeric applications, general purpose application development,
      and teaching.
   c. Be the language of choice for high powered numeric applications
      and have a moderate presence for general purpose application
      development and teaching.
   d. Become a niche language for high powered numeric applications,
      but with little presence elsewhere.
   e. Die a slow, lingering death.
   f. Die a quick, brutal death.

3. Market Presence - Realistic.  Considering such factors as economic
   constraints, internal organizational politics, and the like, what
   kind of market presence should Fortran have?
   a. Blow away all of the competition.
   b. Be second to none as the language of choice for high powered
      numeric applications, general purpose application development,
      and teaching.
   c. Be the language of choice for high powered numeric applications
      and have a moderate presence for general purpose application
      development and teaching.
   d. Become a niche language for high powered numeric applications,
      but with little presence elsewhere.
   e. Die a slow, lingering death.
   f. Die a quick, brutal death.

4. Value as a teaching language.
   a. Popularity as a teaching language is important to the survival
      of Fortran.
   b. Popularity as a teaching language is of little importance to
      the survival of   Fortran.

5. Value of Object Oriented Programming (OOP)
   a. OOP is an important trend in computing which will be central to
      computing in the 21st century.
   b. OOP is an important fad which will pass, but it will leave
      moderate influence on computing in the 21st century.
   c. OOP is a fad which will pass and leave little influence on
      computing in the 21st century.

6. Human Productivity Considerations
   a. Human productivity (e.g., function points per labor hour) will
      become much more important in the next 10-15 years than it has
      in the past.
   b. Human productivity is already an important aspect of software
      management and will continue to be important.
   c. Human productivity, although important in other areas of
      software engineering, is not an important consideration for
      Fortran.
   d. Human productivity will be no more important in software
      management in the next 10-15 years than it has been in the past.

7. Choice of Programming Language Decision
   a. The choice of programming language will be based primarily on
      rational criteria such as suitability to the application, staff
      expertise, human productivity, and the like.
   b. The choice of programming language is strongly influenced both
      by rational and non-rational criteria.
   c. The choice of programming language will be based primarily on
      non-rational criteria such as fads, prejudices, peer pressure,
      internal office politics, and the like.

8. Access to System Level Tools and Interfaces
   a. Easy, intuitive access to system level tools and interfaces
      (such as operating system functions and windowing APIs) is
      vital to the success of programming languages.
   b. Programming languages can safely ignore access to system level
      tools and interfaces.

9. Processor Character Sets
   a. Support for standardized character sets will be vital to
      international and cross-platform computing in the next
      10-15 years.
   b. Programming languages can safely ignore user needs for
      standardized processor character sets.

10. Size of the Language
    a. A programming language can thrive if it is a large language
       with a rich feature set.
    b. Large languages with rich feature sets are unwieldy dinosaurs
       which are doomed to extinction, due to resulting cost and
       complexity.

[End of 96-167r1]